INDIANA
PACERSIND
24-20 | Road
136
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
20-22 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
SPURS
100%
PACERS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
25.9%
IND By 8-14 points
16.3%
SA By 1-7 points
24.7%
SA By 8-14 points
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
115.12
INDIANA
San Antonio
114.53
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Indiana
INDIANA
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
IND @ SA
119 - 134
Jan 2, 2026
SA @ IND
123 - 113
Oct 13, 2025
SA @ IND
124 - 108
Jan 25, 2025
IND @ SA
136 - 98
Jan 23, 2025
SA @ IND
140 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.1% more
Indiana: 9.0
vs
San Antonio: 7.3
Blocks (L5)
+92.0% more
San Antonio: 8.0
vs
Indiana: 4.2
Turnovers (L5)
+22.9% more
San Antonio: 16.0
vs
Indiana: 13.0
Rebounding (L5)
+20.1% more
San Antonio: 48.3
vs
Indiana: 40.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
115.1
136
SA Score
114.5
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 34.7
34.4 / 43.6
Assists
32.7 / 30.0
22.0 / 32.0
Blocks
8.0 / 4.2
5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 48.3
41.2 / 52.0
Free Throw %
82.2 / 72.4
68.0 / 92.9
Rebounding
48.3 / 40.2
44.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.3 / 9.0
9.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 13.0
24.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
IND
SA
IND
ML
60%
111-73
48%
47-50
58%
61-44
54%
45-38
ATS
58%
107-76-1
59%
57-40
58%
61-44
54%
45-38
TTL
74%
134-47-3
54%
52-45
100%
105-0
100%
83-0
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