OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
37-8 | Road
109
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
23-23 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
WARRIORS
100%
THUNDER
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
26.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
25.2%
GS By 1-7 points
15.5%
GS By 8-14 points
5.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
120.16
OKLAHOMA CITY
Golden State
113.29
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
OKLAHOMA CITY
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 233.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
GS @ OKC
97 - 104
Jan 2, 2026
OKC @ GS
131 - 94
Dec 2, 2025
OKC @ GS
124 - 112
Nov 11, 2025
GS @ OKC
102 - 126
Jan 29, 2025
OKC @ GS
109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.2% more
Oklahoma City: 9.2
vs
Golden State: 7.5
Blocks (L5)
+11.7% more
Oklahoma City: 3.8
vs
Golden State: 3.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
Oklahoma City: 82.7%
vs
Golden State: 76.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Oklahoma City: 47.9%
vs
Golden State: 42.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
120.2
109
GS Score
113.3
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 36.8
34.2 / 23.1
Assists
30.1 / 25.5
30.0 / 21.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.8
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 47.9
49.4 / 40.4
Free Throw %
76.6 / 82.7
82.1 / 80.0
Rebounding
45.0 / 40.3
42.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.2
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 11.3
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
OKC
GS
OKC
ML
55%
95-79
70%
80-34
58%
49-35
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
101-73
73%
83-30-1
58%
49-35
48%
46-49
TTL
77%
134-40
67%
76-38
100%
84-0
100%
95-0
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