MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
26-19 | Road
118
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
20-24 | Home
144
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
SPURS
100%
BUCKS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.6 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
20.8%
MIL By 8-14 points
27.3%
SA By 1-7 points
8.6%
SA By 8-14 points
2.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
119.75
MILWAUKEE
San Antonio
108.19
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 227.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
SA @ MIL
127 - 95
Jan 15, 2026
MIL @ SA
101 - 119
Jan 31, 2025
MIL @ SA
118 - 144
Jan 8, 2025
SA @ MIL
105 - 121
Jan 4, 2024
MIL @ SA
125 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Milwaukee: 52.1%
vs
San Antonio: 47.8%
Blocks (L5)
+55.7% more
San Antonio: 6.3
vs
Milwaukee: 4.1
Steals (L5)
+51.4% more
San Antonio: 8.9
vs
Milwaukee: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+38.9% more
San Antonio: 15.8
vs
Milwaukee: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
119.8
118
SA Score
108.2
144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 36.4
48.0 / 32.4
Assists
28.4 / 28.1
37.0 / 24.0
Blocks
6.3 / 4.1
11.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 52.1
49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
75.6 / 71.2
80.0 / 76.9
Rebounding
41.3 / 43.2
53.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.9 / 5.9
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 11.4
6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
MIL
SA
MIL
ML
60%
111-73
64%
61-35
58%
61-44
60%
49-32
ATS
58%
107-76-1
68%
65-31
58%
61-44
60%
49-32
TTL
74%
134-47-3
55%
53-43
100%
105-0
100%
81-0
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