PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
24-22 | Road
130
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
24-23 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
SUNS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
PHX By 1-7 points
22.6%
PHX By 8-14 points
11.7%
GS By 1-7 points
27.0%
GS By 8-14 points
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
111.67
PHOENIX
Golden State
114
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
GS @ PHX
96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026
GS @ PHX
101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025
PHX @ GS
116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
GS @ PHX
98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025
PHX @ GS
107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.4% more
Golden State: 30.0
vs
Phoenix: 26.5
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Phoenix: 14.6
vs
Golden State: 13.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Phoenix: 48.4%
vs
Golden State: 45.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Phoenix: 38.5%
vs
Golden State: 36.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
111.7
130
GS Score
114.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 38.5
36.4 / 48.7
Assists
30.0 / 26.5
26.0 / 41.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.7
6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 48.4
37.5 / 56.2
Free Throw %
78.4 / 80.0
68.0 / 68.8
Rebounding
44.0 / 41.4
49.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.0 / 7.3
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 14.6
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
PHX
GS
PHX
ML
55%
95-79
57%
60-45
58%
49-35
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
101-73
58%
59-43-3
58%
49-35
51%
45-43
TTL
77%
134-40
59%
61-42-2
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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