Home / NBA Projections NBA / Wizards @ Timberwolves WSH @ MIN

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

6-41  |  Road

105
FINAL
Sat, Feb 1 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

27-21  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
WIZARDS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Minnesota)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

23.4%

Timberwolves Cover

76.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -7.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

WSH By 1-7 points

14.9%

WSH By 8-14 points

5.5%

MIN By 1-7 points

26.0%

MIN By 8-14 points

25.6%

AI Model Projected Score
105.5
WASHINGTON
112.75
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
WASHINGTON
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 218.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MIN @ WSH 141 - 115
Nov 19, 2025 WSH @ MIN 109 - 120
Feb 1, 2025 WSH @ MIN 105 - 103
Jan 13, 2025 MIN @ WSH 120 - 106
Apr 9, 2024 WSH @ MIN 121 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +44.4% more
Minnesota: 29.8 vs Washington: 20.7
Blocks (L5) +38.3% more
Minnesota: 6.5 vs Washington: 4.7
Steals (L5) +32.0% more
Minnesota: 8.1 vs Washington: 6.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +19.5%
Minnesota: 45.2% vs Washington: 25.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 105.5 105
MIN Score 112.8 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.2 / 25.7 30.0 / 45.5
Assists 29.8 / 20.7 29.0 / 26.0
Blocks 6.5 / 4.7 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 37.5 40.9 / 45.8
Free Throw % 80.8 / 77.7 83.3 / 82.4
Rebounding 41.3 / 41.6 47.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.1 / 6.1 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 16.4 16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
WSH
MIN
WSH
ML
54% 63-53
70% 112-49
54% 50-43
47% 39-44
ATS
58% 67-49
69% 111-49-1
54% 50-43
47% 39-44
TTL
63% 72-43-1
74% 119-41-1
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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