MIAMI
HEATMIA
23-23 | Road
105
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
21-24 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
SPURS
100%
HEAT
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
20.3%
SA By 1-7 points
21.4%
SA By 8-14 points
10.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
112.66
MIAMI
San Antonio
109.52
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
SA @ MIA
136 - 111
Oct 30, 2025
MIA @ SA
101 - 107
Oct 8, 2025
SA @ MIA
112 - 107
Feb 1, 2025
MIA @ SA
105 - 103
Jan 19, 2025
SA @ MIA
107 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.3% more
Miami: 15.3
vs
San Antonio: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Miami: 83.7%
vs
San Antonio: 77.1%
Blocks (L5)
+111.8% more
San Antonio: 7.9
vs
Miami: 3.7
Steals (L5)
+39.5% more
San Antonio: 8.3
vs
Miami: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
112.7
105
SA Score
109.5
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 36.6
33.3 / 31.0
Assists
31.3 / 28.0
27.0 / 30.0
Blocks
7.9 / 3.7
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 46.9
41.8 / 46.1
Free Throw %
77.1 / 83.7
71.4 / 58.8
Rebounding
45.2 / 42.6
48.0 / 52.0
Steals
8.3 / 5.9
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 15.3
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
MIA
SA
MIA
ML
60%
111-73
48%
46-50
58%
61-44
59%
48-34
ATS
58%
107-76-1
51%
49-47
58%
61-44
59%
48-34
TTL
74%
134-47-3
59%
57-39
100%
105-0
100%
82-0
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