SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
21-25 | Road
109
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
33-16 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
SPURS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
SA By 1-7 points
19.9%
SA By 8-14 points
9.1%
MEM By 1-7 points
27.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
21.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
119.94
SAN ANTONIO
Memphis
124.06
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
SA @ MEM
123 - 98
Jan 6, 2026
SA @ MEM
105 - 106
Dec 2, 2025
MEM @ SA
119 - 126
Nov 18, 2025
MEM @ SA
101 - 111
Mar 1, 2025
SA @ MEM
130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+21.9% more
Memphis: 14.6
vs
San Antonio: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Memphis: 49.5%
vs
San Antonio: 46.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
San Antonio: 38.2%
vs
Memphis: 36.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
119.9
109
MEM Score
124.1
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 38.2
38.9 / 33.3
Assists
29.7 / 29.9
33.0 / 31.0
Blocks
6.0 / 6.3
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 46.1
48.5 / 45.1
Free Throw %
75.4 / 75.2
90.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
48.5 / 46.1
47.0 / 48.0
Steals
8.1 / 8.2
17.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 12.0
15.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
SA
MEM
SA
ML
57%
59-44
60%
111-73
50%
41-41
58%
61-44
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
107-76-1
50%
41-41
58%
61-44
TTL
70%
71-31-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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