Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Lakers GS @ LAL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

25-25  |  Road

112
FINAL
Thu, Feb 6 • 10:00 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

29-19  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
WARRIORS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.2
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.2 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

69.8%

Lakers Cover

30.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -5.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

27.2%

GS By 8-14 points

23.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

18.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
116.78
GOLDEN STATE
111.59
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.7% more
Los Angeles: 15.0 vs Golden State: 11.6
Blocks (L5) +11.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Golden State: 3.6
Field Goal % (L5) +10.6%
Los Angeles: 54.5% vs Golden State: 43.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Los Angeles: 42.9% vs Golden State: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 116.8 112
LAL Score 111.6 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.9 / 34.7 37.1 / 30.2
Assists 29.0 / 29.3 26.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.6 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 54.5 / 43.9 50.0 / 40.6
Free Throw % 77.4 / 72.5 80.6 / 70.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 43.7 47.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.7 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 11.6 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
GS
LAL
GS
ML
61% 68-43
55% 95-79
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
58% 101-73
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
77% 134-40
100% 91-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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