GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
26-26 | Road
125
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
28-23 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
BUCKS
0%
WARRIORS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
GS By 1-7 points
24.0%
GS By 8-14 points
13.3%
MIL By 1-7 points
26.4%
MIL By 8-14 points
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
116.99
GOLDEN STATE
Milwaukee
118.24
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
MIL @ GS
113 - 120
Oct 30, 2025
GS @ MIL
110 - 120
Mar 18, 2025
MIL @ GS
93 - 104
Feb 10, 2025
GS @ MIL
125 - 111
Mar 6, 2024
MIL @ GS
90 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
Milwaukee: 84.9%
vs
Golden State: 76.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Milwaukee: 40.2%
vs
Golden State: 35.3%
Blocks (L5)
+17.8% more
Golden State: 4.4
vs
Milwaukee: 3.6
Steals (L5)
+15.6% more
Golden State: 7.9
vs
Milwaukee: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
117.0
125
MIL Score
118.2
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.2 / 35.3
30.3 / 28.9
Assists
27.7 / 30.8
18.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 45.2
50.0 / 44.1
Free Throw %
84.9 / 76.2
73.5 / 78.9
Rebounding
45.6 / 43.0
37.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.6 / 7.9
5.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 12.8
20.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
GS
MIL
GS
ML
64%
61-35
55%
95-79
60%
49-32
58%
49-35
ATS
68%
65-31
58%
101-73
60%
49-32
58%
49-35
TTL
55%
53-43
77%
134-40
100%
81-0
100%
84-0
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