PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
26-28 | Road
109
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
23-29 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
SPURS
100%
SUNS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
27.4%
PHX By 8-14 points
21.3%
SA By 1-7 points
20.5%
SA By 8-14 points
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
114.85
PHOENIX
San Antonio
111.07
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Phoenix
PHOENIX
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
100 - 101
Feb 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
94 - 121
Nov 23, 2025
SA @ PHX
102 - 111
Nov 2, 2025
SA @ PHX
118 - 130
Apr 11, 2025
SA @ PHX
98 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.1% more
Phoenix: 6.8
vs
San Antonio: 3.9
Turnovers (L5)
+21.3% more
Phoenix: 13.9
vs
San Antonio: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Phoenix: 82.7%
vs
San Antonio: 81.1%
Steals (L5)
+46.0% more
San Antonio: 9.8
vs
Phoenix: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
114.9
109
SA Score
111.1
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 35.3
36.6 / 36.4
Assists
29.0 / 28.1
30.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.9 / 6.8
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 46.8
47.3 / 46.9
Free Throw %
81.1 / 82.7
77.3 / 85.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 42.7
44.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.8 / 6.7
13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 13.9
11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
PHX
SA
PHX
ML
60%
111-73
57%
60-45
58%
61-44
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
107-76-1
58%
59-43-3
58%
61-44
51%
45-43
TTL
74%
134-47-3
59%
61-42-2
100%
105-0
100%
88-0
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