DETROIT
PISTONSDET
29-26 | Road
125
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
24-29 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
SPURS
0%
PISTONS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
DET By 1-7 points
15.9%
DET By 8-14 points
6.1%
SA By 1-7 points
26.5%
SA By 8-14 points
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
115.45
DETROIT
San Antonio
122.11
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Detroit
DETROIT
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
DET @ SA
106 - 121
Feb 23, 2026
SA @ DET
114 - 103
Mar 25, 2025
SA @ DET
96 - 122
Feb 21, 2025
DET @ SA
125 - 110
Apr 14, 2024
DET @ SA
95 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+16.7% more
San Antonio: 10.9
vs
Detroit: 9.3
Blocks (L5)
+30.3% more
Detroit: 5.2
vs
San Antonio: 3.6
Turnovers (L5)
+24.8% more
Detroit: 14.6
vs
San Antonio: 11.0
Rebounding (L5)
+15.6% more
Detroit: 48.9
vs
San Antonio: 41.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
115.5
125
SA Score
122.1
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 37.7
34.5 / 34.3
Assists
29.4 / 29.7
27.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.2
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 49.7
51.2 / 50.0
Free Throw %
79.8 / 83.4
63.6 / 86.4
Rebounding
41.2 / 48.9
32.0 / 53.0
Steals
10.9 / 9.3
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 14.6
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
DET
SA
DET
ML
60%
111-73
55%
64-53
58%
61-44
49%
47-49
ATS
58%
107-76-1
53%
60-54-3
58%
61-44
49%
47-49
TTL
74%
134-47-3
60%
70-46-1
100%
105-0
100%
96-0
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