DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
31-26 | Road
102
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
29-27 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
DAL By 1-7 points
25.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
15.3%
GS By 1-7 points
25.4%
GS By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
115.8
DALLAS
Golden State
115.81
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Dallas
DALLAS
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
GS @ DAL
137 - 131
Jan 22, 2026
GS @ DAL
115 - 123
Dec 25, 2025
DAL @ GS
116 - 126
Feb 23, 2025
DAL @ GS
102 - 126
Feb 12, 2025
GS @ DAL
107 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+48.7% more
Golden State: 11.7
vs
Dallas: 7.9
Assists (L5)
+21.0% more
Golden State: 32.2
vs
Dallas: 26.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.8%
Golden State: 88.3%
vs
Dallas: 77.4%
Blocks (L5)
+15.6% more
Dallas: 5.1
vs
Golden State: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
115.8
102
GS Score
115.8
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 38.7
30.0 / 40.6
Assists
32.2 / 26.6
30.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.1
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 47.5
48.0 / 46.3
Free Throw %
88.3 / 77.4
87.0 / 68.4
Rebounding
41.6 / 42.0
54.0 / 41.0
Steals
11.7 / 7.9
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 13.3
10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
DAL
GS
DAL
ML
55%
95-79
62%
63-39
58%
49-35
54%
44-37
ATS
58%
101-73
67%
68-34
58%
49-35
54%
44-37
TTL
77%
134-40
59%
60-41-1
100%
84-0
100%
81-0
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