Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Jazz MIN @ UTAH

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

32-28  |  Road

116
FINAL
Fri, Feb 28 • 9:30 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

14-44  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
JAZZ
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.1 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

84.3%

Jazz Cover

15.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -10.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

22.9%

MIN By 8-14 points

27.3%

UTAH By 1-7 points

10.6%

UTAH By 8-14 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
119.25
MINNESOTA
109.18
UTAH
Simulated Score
MINNESOTA
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 UTAH @ MIN 111 - 147
Jan 20, 2026 MIN @ UTAH 122 - 127
Nov 10, 2025 MIN @ UTAH 120 - 113
Nov 7, 2025 UTAH @ MIN 97 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 UTAH @ MIN 105 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.8% more
Minnesota: 4.3 vs Utah: 2.6
Free Throw % (L5) +19.0%
Minnesota: 84.3% vs Utah: 65.3%
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Utah: 13.7 vs Minnesota: 12.2
Assists (L5) +10.8% more
Utah: 28.1 vs Minnesota: 25.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 119.3 116
UTAH Score 109.2 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 30.6 40.0 / 38.5
Assists 28.1 / 25.4 35.0 / 35.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 43.4 51.1 / 43.6
Free Throw % 65.3 / 84.3 64.3 / 57.1
Rebounding 43.3 / 45.7 60.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.4 3.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 12.2 20.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
MIN
UTAH
MIN
ML
60% 96-63
54% 63-53
48% 40-43
54% 50-43
ATS
68% 108-51
58% 67-49
48% 40-43
54% 50-43
TTL
75% 119-39-1
63% 72-43-1
100% 83-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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