SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
24-33 | Road
130
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
38-21 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
SPURS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
SA By 1-7 points
18.5%
SA By 8-14 points
8.0%
MEM By 1-7 points
27.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
23.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
112.45
SAN ANTONIO
Memphis
117.47
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
SA @ MEM
123 - 98
Jan 6, 2026
SA @ MEM
105 - 106
Dec 2, 2025
MEM @ SA
119 - 126
Nov 18, 2025
MEM @ SA
101 - 111
Mar 1, 2025
SA @ MEM
130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+25.7% more
Memphis: 15.6
vs
San Antonio: 12.4
Rebounding (L5)
+14.5% more
Memphis: 47.9
vs
San Antonio: 41.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.3%
Memphis: 85.6%
vs
San Antonio: 73.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Memphis: 47.1%
vs
San Antonio: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
112.5
130
MEM Score
117.5
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 27.2
28.9 / 38.9
Assists
28.0 / 28.5
31.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.8
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 42.4
52.6 / 52.1
Free Throw %
85.6 / 73.2
85.0 / 72.7
Rebounding
47.9 / 41.8
41.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.1 / 11.3
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 12.4
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
SA
MEM
SA
ML
57%
59-44
60%
111-73
50%
41-41
58%
61-44
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
107-76-1
50%
41-41
58%
61-44
TTL
70%
71-31-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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