Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Knicks GS @ NY

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

33-28  |  Road

114
FINAL
Tue, Mar 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

40-20  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
WARRIORS --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (New York)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

34.0%

Knicks Cover

66.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

GS By 1-7 points

19.9%

GS By 8-14 points

9.1%

NY By 1-7 points

27.4%

NY By 8-14 points

21.8%

AI Model Projected Score
116.77
GOLDEN STATE
120.89
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 GS @ NY 107 - 110
Jan 15, 2026 NY @ GS 113 - 126
Mar 15, 2025 NY @ GS 94 - 97
Mar 4, 2025 GS @ NY 114 - 102
Mar 18, 2024 NY @ GS 119 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.0% more
New York: 5.7 vs Golden State: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
New York: 48.0% vs Golden State: 45.1%
Steals (L5) +31.0% more
Golden State: 9.9 vs New York: 6.8
Assists (L5) +19.2% more
Golden State: 32.4 vs New York: 26.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 116.8 114
NY Score 120.9 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 34.8 24.2 / 35.1
Assists 26.1 / 32.4 26.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.7 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 45.1 44.6 / 48.9
Free Throw % 76.3 / 85.4 80.0 / 78.9
Rebounding 41.5 / 48.6 42.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.9 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 11.9 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
GS
NY
GS
ML
61% 114-72
55% 95-79
56% 57-45
58% 49-35
ATS
67% 124-62
58% 101-73
56% 57-45
58% 49-35
TTL
72% 133-53
77% 134-40
100% 102-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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