Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Nets GS @ BKN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

34-28  |  Road

121
FINAL
Thu, Mar 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Barclays Center
View Odds Details →

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

21-40  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
NETS
0%
WARRIORS --
NETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BROOKLYN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Brooklyn)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 NetsBKN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

48.2%

Nets Cover

51.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BKN -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BKN)

GS By 1-7 points

24.9%

GS By 8-14 points

14.6%

BKN By 1-7 points

25.8%

BKN By 8-14 points

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
111.07
GOLDEN STATE
111.51
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 BKN @ GS 106 - 109
Dec 29, 2025 GS @ BKN 120 - 107
Mar 6, 2025 GS @ BKN 121 - 119
Nov 25, 2024 BKN @ GS 128 - 120
Feb 5, 2024 GS @ BKN 109 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Brooklyn: 15.3 vs Golden State: 12.2
Steals (L5) +15.1% more
Brooklyn: 10.2 vs Golden State: 8.9
Assists (L5) +21.4% more
Golden State: 31.6 vs Brooklyn: 24.8
Blocks (L5) +16.5% more
Golden State: 5.5 vs Brooklyn: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 111.1 121
BKN Score 111.5 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.1 / 34.9 45.5 / 37.5
Assists 24.8 / 31.6 30.0 / 31.0
Blocks 4.6 / 5.5 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 46.4 50.6 / 48.8
Free Throw % 84.3 / 83.2 88.9 / 90.6
Rebounding 41.4 / 47.1 32.0 / 45.0
Steals 10.2 / 8.9 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 12.2 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
BKN Advantage
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
GS
BKN
GS
ML
53% 50-45
55% 95-79
59% 48-34
58% 49-35
ATS
52% 48-44-3
58% 101-73
59% 48-34
58% 49-35
TTL
57% 54-41
77% 134-40
100% 82-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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