SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
26-34 | Road
109
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
32-29 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
KINGS
0%
SPURS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SA By 1-7 points
17.2%
SA By 8-14 points
7.0%
SAC By 1-7 points
26.9%
SAC By 8-14 points
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
112.81
SAN ANTONIO
Sacramento
118.65
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Sacramento
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
SA @ SAC
132 - 104
Feb 21, 2026
SAC @ SA
122 - 139
Nov 16, 2025
SAC @ SA
110 - 123
Mar 7, 2025
SA @ SAC
109 - 127
Dec 6, 2024
SAC @ SA
140 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.4% more
Sacramento: 5.1
vs
San Antonio: 4.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+19.9%
Sacramento: 85.7%
vs
San Antonio: 65.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Sacramento: 40.9%
vs
San Antonio: 38.5%
Assists (L5)
+21.2% more
San Antonio: 33.7
vs
Sacramento: 26.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
112.8
109
SAC Score
118.7
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.9 / 38.5
44.7 / 38.1
Assists
26.5 / 33.7
31.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.0
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 51.0
51.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
85.7 / 65.8
63.2 / 56.5
Rebounding
44.1 / 41.7
51.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.8 / 8.0
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 13.5
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
SA
SAC
SA
ML
55%
55-45
60%
111-73
61%
50-32
58%
61-44
ATS
54%
52-45-3
58%
107-76-1
61%
50-32
58%
61-44
TTL
58%
57-42-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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