DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
43-25 | Road
114
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
39-28 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
NUGGETS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
26.5%
DEN By 8-14 points
17.5%
GS By 1-7 points
23.9%
GS By 8-14 points
13.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
120.62
DENVER
Golden State
119.27
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Denver
DENVER
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
GS @ DEN
93 - 116
Feb 22, 2026
DEN @ GS
117 - 128
Nov 7, 2025
GS @ DEN
104 - 129
Oct 23, 2025
DEN @ GS
131 - 137
Apr 4, 2025
DEN @ GS
104 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.1% more
Denver: 5.8
vs
Golden State: 4.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Denver: 49.9%
vs
Golden State: 47.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Golden State: 40.6%
vs
Denver: 37.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Golden State: 82.2%
vs
Denver: 80.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
120.6
114
GS Score
119.3
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 37.7
24.2 / 35.9
Assists
30.1 / 32.1
24.0 / 32.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.8
10.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 49.9
48.8 / 46.7
Free Throw %
82.2 / 80.4
55.6 / 77.8
Rebounding
44.2 / 42.0
38.0 / 53.0
Steals
9.0 / 8.7
16.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 13.5
20.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
DEN
GS
DEN
ML
55%
95-79
54%
57-48
58%
49-35
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
101-73
63%
65-38-2
58%
49-35
55%
47-39
TTL
77%
134-40
54%
56-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
86-0
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