SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
28-38 | Road
109
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
41-25 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
LAKERS
0%
SPURS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)
SA By 1-7 points
23.9%
SA By 8-14 points
13.2%
LAL By 1-7 points
26.4%
LAL By 8-14 points
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
117.08
SAN ANTONIO
Los Angeles
118.38
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Los Angeles
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
SA @ LAL
136 - 108
Jan 7, 2026
LAL @ SA
91 - 107
Dec 10, 2025
SA @ LAL
132 - 119
Nov 5, 2025
SA @ LAL
116 - 118
Mar 17, 2025
SA @ LAL
109 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.7% more
Los Angeles: 3.8
vs
San Antonio: 3.0
Rebounding (L5)
+10.9% more
Los Angeles: 42.9
vs
San Antonio: 38.7
Steals (L5)
+32.8% more
San Antonio: 10.2
vs
Los Angeles: 6.9
Assists (L5)
+12.3% more
San Antonio: 28.1
vs
Los Angeles: 24.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
117.1
109
LAL Score
118.4
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 40.0
39.6 / 39.5
Assists
24.7 / 28.1
34.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.0
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 49.9
48.9 / 46.6
Free Throw %
76.6 / 75.6
75.0 / 85.7
Rebounding
42.9 / 38.7
42.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.9 / 10.2
13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 12.0
9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
LAL
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
LAL
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
SA
LAL
SA
ML
61%
68-43
60%
111-73
54%
49-42
58%
61-44
ATS
61%
67-43-1
58%
107-76-1
54%
49-42
58%
61-44
TTL
61%
66-43-2
74%
134-47-3
100%
91-0
100%
105-0
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