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MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

38-29  |  Road

93
FINAL
Tue, Mar 18 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

39-29  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
BUCKS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Golden State)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

22.6%

Warriors Cover

77.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

MIL By 1-7 points

14.5%

MIL By 8-14 points

5.3%

GS By 1-7 points

25.8%

GS By 8-14 points

25.8%

AI Model Projected Score
115.74
MILWAUKEE
123.27
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
MILWAUKEE
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 MIL @ GS 113 - 120
Oct 30, 2025 GS @ MIL 110 - 120
Mar 18, 2025 MIL @ GS 93 - 104
Feb 10, 2025 GS @ MIL 125 - 111
Mar 6, 2024 MIL @ GS 90 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +49.1% more
Golden State: 11.4 vs Milwaukee: 7.6
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
Golden State: 16.3 vs Milwaukee: 13.1
Blocks (L5) +18.5% more
Golden State: 6.6 vs Milwaukee: 5.6
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
Golden State: 28.0 vs Milwaukee: 25.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 115.7 93
GS Score 123.3 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 39.2 38.6 / 31.6
Assists 28.0 / 25.1 25.0 / 19.0
Blocks 6.6 / 5.6 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 47.3 41.6 / 39.2
Free Throw % 73.3 / 82.2 88.5 / 70.4
Rebounding 42.1 / 42.2 52.0 / 34.0
Steals 11.4 / 7.6 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.3 / 13.1 19.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MIL
GS
MIL
ML
55% 95-79
64% 61-35
58% 49-35
60% 49-32
ATS
58% 101-73
68% 65-31
58% 49-35
60% 49-32
TTL
77% 134-40
55% 53-43
100% 84-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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