Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Timberwolves NO @ MIN

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

18-51  |  Road

119
FINAL
Wed, Mar 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

40-30  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
PELICANS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Minnesota)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

39.7%

Timberwolves Cover

60.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NO By 1-7 points

22.2%

NO By 8-14 points

11.2%

MIN By 1-7 points

27.1%

MIN By 8-14 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
112.94
NEW ORLEANS
115.56
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 NO @ MIN 126 - 132
Feb 6, 2026 NO @ MIN 119 - 115
Dec 4, 2025 MIN @ NO 125 - 116
Dec 2, 2025 MIN @ NO 149 - 142
Mar 21, 2025 NO @ MIN 93 - 134
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +93.1% more
Minnesota: 10.3 vs New Orleans: 5.3
Blocks (L5) +19.7% more
Minnesota: 5.9 vs New Orleans: 4.9
Assists (L5) +10.8% more
Minnesota: 28.1 vs New Orleans: 25.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Minnesota: 36.6% vs New Orleans: 29.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 112.9 119
MIN Score 115.6 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 29.3 41.0 / 44.8
Assists 28.1 / 25.4 21.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.9 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 42.8 45.5 / 52.8
Free Throw % 75.9 / 78.2 80.6 / 54.5
Rebounding 45.2 / 43.2 40.0 / 46.0
Steals 10.3 / 5.3 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 16.1 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NO
MIN
NO
ML
54% 63-53
62% 98-61
54% 50-43
58% 48-35
ATS
58% 67-49
68% 107-51-1
54% 50-43
58% 48-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
75% 119-40
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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