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TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

24-45  |  Road

114
FINAL
Thu, Mar 20 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

40-29  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
RAPTORS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Golden State)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

39.4%

Warriors Cover

60.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

TOR By 1-7 points

22.1%

TOR By 8-14 points

11.1%

GS By 1-7 points

27.1%

GS By 8-14 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
111.29
TORONTO
113.99
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
TORONTO
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 TOR @ GS 145 - 127
Dec 28, 2025 GS @ TOR 127 - 141
Mar 20, 2025 TOR @ GS 114 - 117
Jan 13, 2025 GS @ TOR 101 - 104
Mar 1, 2024 GS @ TOR 120 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +123.8% more
Golden State: 6.4 vs Toronto: 2.9
Steals (L5) +32.1% more
Golden State: 9.9 vs Toronto: 7.5
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
Golden State: 17.2 vs Toronto: 15.0
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Golden State: 45.8% vs Toronto: 40.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 111.3 114
GS Score 114.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 33.0 40.4 / 42.3
Assists 27.0 / 25.6 30.0 / 32.0
Blocks 6.4 / 2.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 40.6 42.2 / 56.4
Free Throw % 78.4 / 75.8 78.6 / 78.9
Rebounding 45.4 / 48.2 38.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.9 / 7.5 13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.2 / 15.0 15.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
TOR
GS
TOR
ML
55% 95-79
55% 57-47
58% 49-35
55% 48-39
ATS
58% 101-73
61% 62-40-2
58% 49-35
55% 48-39
TTL
77% 134-40
60% 62-42
100% 84-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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