Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Timberwolves NO @ MIN

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

19-51  |  Road

93
FINAL
Fri, Mar 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

40-31  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
PELICANS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Minnesota)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

44.1%

Timberwolves Cover

55.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NO By 1-7 points

23.7%

NO By 8-14 points

13.0%

MIN By 1-7 points

26.5%

MIN By 8-14 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
114.65
NEW ORLEANS
116.13
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 NO @ MIN 126 - 132
Feb 6, 2026 NO @ MIN 119 - 115
Dec 4, 2025 MIN @ NO 125 - 116
Dec 2, 2025 MIN @ NO 149 - 142
Mar 21, 2025 NO @ MIN 93 - 134
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +76.1% more
Minnesota: 9.2 vs New Orleans: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +12.3% more
Minnesota: 5.9 vs New Orleans: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.2%
Minnesota: 77.4% vs New Orleans: 70.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Minnesota: 38.1% vs New Orleans: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 114.7 93
MIN Score 116.1 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 34.5 43.2 / 35.5
Assists 25.7 / 26.3 40.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.9 / 5.3 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 46.1 53.9 / 50.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 70.3 95.0 / 63.6
Rebounding 43.5 / 44.2 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.2 / 5.2 14.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 15.7 14.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NO
MIN
NO
ML
54% 63-53
62% 98-61
54% 50-43
58% 48-35
ATS
58% 67-49
68% 107-51-1
54% 50-43
58% 48-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
75% 119-40
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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