GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
41-29 | Road
115
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
33-36 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
HAWKS
100%
WARRIORS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
27.2%
GS By 8-14 points
19.8%
ATL By 1-7 points
21.9%
ATL By 8-14 points
11.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
120.31
GOLDEN STATE
Atlanta
117.51
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Atlanta
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
GS @ ATL
110 - 126
Jan 11, 2026
ATL @ GS
124 - 111
Mar 22, 2025
GS @ ATL
115 - 124
Nov 20, 2024
ATL @ GS
97 - 120
Feb 3, 2024
GS @ ATL
134 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+17.2% more
Golden State: 16.5
vs
Atlanta: 13.7
Blocks (L5)
+32.5% more
Atlanta: 7.9
vs
Golden State: 5.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Atlanta: 48.7%
vs
Golden State: 44.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Atlanta: 82.0%
vs
Golden State: 78.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
120.3
115
ATL Score
117.5
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 37.7
41.7 / 42.1
Assists
27.3 / 28.0
37.0 / 28.0
Blocks
7.9 / 5.9
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 44.6
57.0 / 46.4
Free Throw %
82.0 / 78.5
61.1 / 80.8
Rebounding
43.5 / 42.9
46.0 / 38.0
Steals
10.6 / 10.9
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 16.5
16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
GS
ATL
GS
ML
50%
52-52
55%
95-79
55%
48-40
58%
49-35
ATS
53%
55-48-1
58%
101-73
55%
48-40
58%
49-35
TTL
53%
55-48-1
77%
134-40
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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