SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
31-39 | Road
96
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
40-32 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
PISTONS
100%
SPURS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
26.4%
SA By 8-14 points
17.3%
DET By 1-7 points
24.0%
DET By 8-14 points
13.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
121.77
SAN ANTONIO
Detroit
120.55
DETROIT
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Detroit
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 242.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
DET @ SA
106 - 121
Feb 23, 2026
SA @ DET
114 - 103
Mar 25, 2025
SA @ DET
96 - 122
Feb 21, 2025
DET @ SA
125 - 110
Apr 14, 2024
DET @ SA
95 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.0% more
San Antonio: 11.1
vs
Detroit: 8.3
Turnovers (L5)
+15.8% more
San Antonio: 14.3
vs
Detroit: 12.0
Assists (L5)
+11.9% more
San Antonio: 29.7
vs
Detroit: 26.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.2%
San Antonio: 80.4%
vs
Detroit: 75.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
121.8
96
DET Score
120.6
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 40.3
48.4 / 31.8
Assists
26.2 / 29.7
33.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.2
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 49.5
56.4 / 36.3
Free Throw %
75.3 / 80.4
76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 42.6
44.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.3 / 11.1
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 14.3
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DET
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
SA
DET
SA
ML
55%
64-53
60%
111-73
49%
47-49
58%
61-44
ATS
53%
60-54-3
58%
107-76-1
49%
47-49
58%
61-44
TTL
60%
70-46-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
96-0
100%
105-0
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