GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
43-31 | Road
134
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
44-31 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
WARRIORS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
GS By 1-7 points
23.9%
GS By 8-14 points
13.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
26.5%
MEM By 8-14 points
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
115.66
GOLDEN STATE
Memphis
117
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
GS @ MEM
133 - 112
Feb 9, 2026
MEM @ GS
113 - 114
Oct 27, 2025
MEM @ GS
118 - 131
Apr 15, 2025
MEM @ GS
116 - 121
Apr 1, 2025
GS @ MEM
134 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.6% more
Memphis: 3.8
vs
Golden State: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+30.2% more
Golden State: 12.0
vs
Memphis: 8.4
Assists (L5)
+13.5% more
Golden State: 31.7
vs
Memphis: 27.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
115.7
134
MEM Score
117.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 36.3
40.9 / 39.3
Assists
27.4 / 31.7
22.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.8 / 2.9
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 47.7
47.8 / 42.4
Free Throw %
75.8 / 76.8
86.4 / 100.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 43.6
43.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.4 / 12.0
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 13.4
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
GS
MEM
GS
ML
57%
59-44
55%
95-79
50%
41-41
58%
49-35
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
101-73
50%
41-41
58%
49-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
77%
134-40
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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