UTAH
JAZZUTAH
16-60 | Road
105
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
49-27 | Home
143
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
ROCKETS
0%
JAZZ
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
UTAH By 1-7 points
19.5%
UTAH By 8-14 points
8.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
22.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
108.62
UTAH
Houston
113.05
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Utah
UTAH
Houston
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
106 - 140
Feb 23, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
105 - 125
Dec 1, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
125 - 133
Nov 30, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
129 - 101
Oct 8, 2025
UTAH @ HOU
127 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+95.7% more
Houston: 4.6
vs
Utah: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+23.9% more
Houston: 49.2
vs
Utah: 39.7
Assists (L5)
+9.4% more
Houston: 26.9
vs
Utah: 24.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Houston: 38.4%
vs
Utah: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
108.6
105
HOU Score
113.1
143
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 30.8
42.2 / 25.0
Assists
26.9 / 24.6
30.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.6 / 2.3
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 42.3
53.8 / 42.6
Free Throw %
77.3 / 82.7
63.2 / 65.2
Rebounding
49.2 / 39.7
63.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.0 / 9.0
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 14.8
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
ML
61%
69-44
60%
96-63
59%
51-35
48%
40-43
ATS
62%
70-43
68%
108-51
59%
51-35
48%
40-43
TTL
51%
58-55
75%
119-39-1
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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