SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
31-44 | Road
113
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
47-29 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
SPURS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
SA By 1-7 points
19.6%
SA By 8-14 points
8.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
27.4%
DEN By 8-14 points
22.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
112.92
SAN ANTONIO
Denver
117.26
DENVER
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
128 - 118
Apr 4, 2026
SA @ DEN
134 - 136
Mar 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
136 - 131
Nov 28, 2025
SA @ DEN
139 - 136
Apr 2, 2025
SA @ DEN
113 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+130.6% more
Denver: 7.5
vs
San Antonio: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+27.8% more
Denver: 33.6
vs
San Antonio: 26.3
Rebounding (L5)
+16.8% more
Denver: 45.1
vs
San Antonio: 38.7
Steals (L5)
+13.4% more
Denver: 8.0
vs
San Antonio: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
112.9
113
DEN Score
117.3
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 37.8
29.5 / 37.0
Assists
33.6 / 26.3
24.0 / 27.0
Blocks
7.5 / 3.3
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
53.6 / 46.4
39.6 / 44.3
Free Throw %
72.6 / 72.3
68.0 / 76.9
Rebounding
45.1 / 38.7
58.0 / 52.0
Steals
8.0 / 7.0
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 14.7
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SA
DEN
SA
ML
54%
57-48
60%
111-73
55%
47-39
58%
61-44
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
107-76-1
55%
47-39
58%
61-44
TTL
54%
56-48-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
86-0
100%
105-0
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