Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Lakers GS @ LAL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

44-31  |  Road

123
FINAL
Thu, Apr 3 • 10:00 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

46-29  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
WARRIORS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

77.7%

Lakers Cover

22.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

25.7%

GS By 8-14 points

25.9%

LAL By 1-7 points

14.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

5.2%

AI Model Projected Score
118.13
GOLDEN STATE
110.51
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.6% more
Golden State: 11.7 vs Los Angeles: 8.5
Assists (L5) +16.9% more
Golden State: 30.8 vs Los Angeles: 25.6
Blocks (L5) +50.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.4 vs Golden State: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
Los Angeles: 86.1% vs Golden State: 84.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 118.1 123
LAL Score 110.5 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 37.3 38.3 / 45.2
Assists 25.6 / 30.8 23.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 45.9 45.3 / 47.6
Free Throw % 86.1 / 84.6 87.0 / 83.9
Rebounding 42.5 / 45.4 39.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.5 / 11.7 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 12.6 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
GS
LAL
GS
ML
61% 68-43
55% 95-79
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
58% 101-73
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
77% 134-40
100% 91-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 0 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 5 hours, 49 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 5 hours, 52 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 5 hours, 56 minutes ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 12 hours, 9 minutes ago