DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
47-30 | Road
104
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
45-31 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
NUGGETS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
19.2%
GS By 1-7 points
22.5%
GS By 8-14 points
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
117.57
DENVER
Golden State
115.16
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Denver
DENVER
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
GS @ DEN
93 - 116
Feb 22, 2026
DEN @ GS
117 - 128
Nov 7, 2025
GS @ DEN
104 - 129
Oct 23, 2025
DEN @ GS
131 - 137
Apr 4, 2025
DEN @ GS
104 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+58.5% more
Denver: 6.4
vs
Golden State: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+12.0% more
Denver: 14.5
vs
Golden State: 12.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Denver: 48.9%
vs
Golden State: 46.5%
Steals (L5)
+23.8% more
Golden State: 9.5
vs
Denver: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
117.6
104
GS Score
115.2
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.9 / 34.8
42.1 / 38.7
Assists
30.5 / 30.4
25.0 / 28.0
Blocks
2.6 / 6.4
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 48.9
48.9 / 54.1
Free Throw %
84.3 / 71.1
88.9 / 92.3
Rebounding
45.6 / 49.4
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.5 / 7.6
14.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 14.5
14.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
DEN
GS
DEN
ML
55%
95-79
54%
57-48
58%
49-35
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
101-73
63%
65-38-2
58%
49-35
55%
47-39
TTL
77%
134-40
54%
56-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
86-0
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