MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
43-34 | Road
111
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
21-56 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
PELICANS
100%
BUCKS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.3 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -8.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
25.0%
MIL By 8-14 points
26.4%
NO By 1-7 points
13.2%
NO By 8-14 points
4.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
113.04
MILWAUKEE
New Orleans
104.73
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 217.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
MIL @ NO
139 - 118
Feb 4, 2026
NO @ MIL
137 - 141
Apr 10, 2025
NO @ MIL
111 - 136
Apr 6, 2025
MIL @ NO
111 - 107
Mar 28, 2024
MIL @ NO
100 - 107
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.1%
Milwaukee: 42.2%
vs
New Orleans: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Milwaukee: 54.6%
vs
New Orleans: 47.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.1%
Milwaukee: 76.4%
vs
New Orleans: 71.3%
Steals (L5)
+43.8% more
New Orleans: 8.7
vs
Milwaukee: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
113.0
111
NO Score
104.7
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 42.2
36.4 / 34.4
Assists
27.4 / 28.5
31.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.2
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 54.6
45.3 / 46.7
Free Throw %
71.3 / 76.4
64.3 / 63.6
Rebounding
42.9 / 39.7
48.0 / 51.0
Steals
8.7 / 6.1
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 12.2
12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MIL
NO
MIL
ML
62%
98-61
64%
61-35
58%
48-35
60%
49-32
ATS
68%
107-51-1
68%
65-31
58%
48-35
60%
49-32
TTL
75%
119-40
55%
53-43
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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