GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
46-32 | Road
133
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
35-43 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
SUNS
100%
WARRIORS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
26.8%
GS By 8-14 points
18.5%
PHX By 1-7 points
23.1%
PHX By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
114.62
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
112.66
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 227.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
GS @ PHX
96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026
GS @ PHX
101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025
PHX @ GS
116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
GS @ PHX
98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025
PHX @ GS
107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.6% more
Golden State: 11.3
vs
Phoenix: 8.1
Turnovers (L5)
+18.1% more
Golden State: 15.4
vs
Phoenix: 12.6
Assists (L5)
+16.6% more
Golden State: 28.5
vs
Phoenix: 23.7
Rebounding (L5)
+14.1% more
Golden State: 43.6
vs
Phoenix: 37.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
114.6
133
PHX Score
112.7
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 39.5
27.9 / 37.5
Assists
23.7 / 28.5
22.0 / 31.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 45.4
39.8 / 48.4
Free Throw %
83.1 / 75.4
86.7 / 82.4
Rebounding
37.4 / 43.6
41.0 / 57.0
Steals
8.1 / 11.3
12.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 15.4
19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
GS
PHX
GS
ML
57%
60-45
55%
95-79
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
101-73
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
77%
134-40
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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