Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Bucks NO @ MIL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

21-58  |  Road

111
FINAL
Thu, Apr 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

45-34  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
BUCKS
0%
PELICANS --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.1 points (Milwaukee)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

15.5%

Bucks Cover

84.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -10.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

NO By 1-7 points

10.5%

NO By 8-14 points

3.2%

MIL By 1-7 points

22.8%

MIL By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
105.74
NEW ORLEANS
115.88
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bucks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bucks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 MIL @ NO 139 - 118
Feb 4, 2026 NO @ MIL 137 - 141
Apr 10, 2025 NO @ MIL 111 - 136
Apr 6, 2025 MIL @ NO 111 - 107
Mar 28, 2024 MIL @ NO 100 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Milwaukee: 50.5% vs New Orleans: 47.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Milwaukee: 37.5% vs New Orleans: 35.0%
Blocks (L5) +34.2% more
New Orleans: 5.2 vs Milwaukee: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +31.3% more
New Orleans: 16.0 vs Milwaukee: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 105.7 111
MIL Score 115.9 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 35.0 40.0 / 31.9
Assists 28.1 / 27.7 27.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.4 / 5.2 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 47.1 54.4 / 42.7
Free Throw % 72.1 / 71.8 66.7 / 73.7
Rebounding 43.3 / 43.7 43.0 / 53.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.1 13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 16.0 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL Advantage
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
NO
MIL
NO
ML
64% 61-35
62% 98-61
60% 49-32
58% 48-35
ATS
68% 65-31
68% 107-51-1
60% 49-32
58% 48-35
TTL
55% 53-43
75% 119-40
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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