Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Timberwolves UTAH @ MIN

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

17-64  |  Road

105
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

48-33  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
JAZZ --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.1 points (Minnesota)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

3.5%

Timberwolves Cover

96.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -18.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

UTAH By 1-7 points

2.6%

UTAH By 8-14 points

0.5%

MIN By 1-7 points

10.6%

MIN By 8-14 points

21.5%

AI Model Projected Score
104.64
UTAH
122.72
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
UTAH
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 UTAH @ MIN 111 - 147
Jan 20, 2026 MIN @ UTAH 122 - 127
Nov 10, 2025 MIN @ UTAH 120 - 113
Nov 7, 2025 UTAH @ MIN 97 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 UTAH @ MIN 105 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +43.6% more
Minnesota: 4.7 vs Utah: 3.3
Assists (L5) +8.6% more
Minnesota: 27.1 vs Utah: 24.9
Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Minnesota: 51.9% vs Utah: 43.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Minnesota: 37.1% vs Utah: 33.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 104.6 105
MIN Score 122.7 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 33.3 30.2 / 38.1
Assists 27.1 / 24.9 23.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.3 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.9 / 43.7 46.9 / 44.9
Free Throw % 79.6 / 81.2 68.8 / 81.8
Rebounding 45.4 / 49.1 54.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.4 / 9.1 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 16.0 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
UTAH
MIN
UTAH
ML
54% 63-53
60% 96-63
54% 50-43
48% 40-43
ATS
58% 67-49
68% 108-51
54% 50-43
48% 40-43
TTL
63% 72-43-1
75% 119-39-1
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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