Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Warriors MEM @ GS

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

0-0  |  Road

116
FINAL
Tue, Apr 15 • 10:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

0-0  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Golden State)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

49.5%

Warriors Cover

50.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

MEM By 1-7 points

25.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

15.1%

GS By 1-7 points

25.5%

GS By 8-14 points

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
118.76
MEMPHIS
118.88
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
MEMPHIS
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 GS @ MEM 133 - 112
Feb 9, 2026 MEM @ GS 113 - 114
Oct 27, 2025 MEM @ GS 118 - 131
Apr 15, 2025 MEM @ GS 116 - 121
Apr 1, 2025 GS @ MEM 134 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.2% more
Golden State: 11.8 vs Memphis: 9.4
Turnovers (L5) +11.2% more
Golden State: 15.0 vs Memphis: 13.5
Assists (L5) +8.6% more
Golden State: 29.1 vs Memphis: 26.8
Rebounding (L5) +16.4% more
Memphis: 47.0 vs Golden State: 39.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 118.8 116
GS Score 118.9 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 37.3 34.9 / 46.2
Assists 29.1 / 26.8 29.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.8 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 47.8 45.9 / 48.8
Free Throw % 79.5 / 78.6 82.4 / 87.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 47.0 39.0 / 50.0
Steals 11.8 / 9.4 13.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 13.5 10.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MEM
GS
MEM
ML
55% 95-79
57% 59-44
58% 49-35
50% 41-41
ATS
58% 101-73
63% 65-38
58% 49-35
50% 41-41
TTL
77% 134-40
70% 71-31-1
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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