GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
1-0 | Road
94
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
0-1 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
WARRIORS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
27.4%
GS By 8-14 points
21.3%
HOU By 1-7 points
20.5%
HOU By 8-14 points
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
119.88
GOLDEN STATE
Houston
116.12
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Houston
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
HOU @ GS
117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026
GS @ HOU
115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025
HOU @ GS
104 - 100
May 4, 2025
GS @ HOU
103 - 89
May 2, 2025
HOU @ GS
115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+39.1% more
Golden State: 12.8
vs
Houston: 7.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.7%
Golden State: 79.9%
vs
Houston: 63.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Golden State: 37.4%
vs
Houston: 32.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Golden State: 46.9%
vs
Houston: 44.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
119.9
94
HOU Score
116.1
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 37.4
37.5 / 39.5
Assists
24.3 / 26.0
21.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.0
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 46.9
45.3 / 41.3
Free Throw %
63.2 / 79.9
80.0 / 61.1
Rebounding
46.4 / 38.1
47.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.8 / 12.8
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 13.5
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU
Advantage
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
GS
HOU
GS
ML
61%
69-44
55%
95-79
59%
51-35
58%
49-35
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
101-73
59%
51-35
58%
49-35
TTL
51%
58-55
77%
134-40
100%
86-0
100%
84-0
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