Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Rockets GS @ HOU

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

3-1  |  Road

116
FINAL
Wed, Apr 30 • 7:30 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

1-3  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
WARRIORS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

53.7%

Rockets Cover

46.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.8%

HOU By 1-7 points

24.4%

HOU By 8-14 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
112.28
GOLDEN STATE
111.35
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.3% more
Golden State: 9.2 vs Houston: 6.8
Assists (L5) +20.3% more
Golden State: 25.8 vs Houston: 20.5
Free Throw % (L5) +16.8%
Golden State: 80.8% vs Houston: 64.0%
Blocks (L5) +36.1% more
Houston: 5.2 vs Golden State: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 112.3 116
HOU Score 111.4 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.9 / 36.2 43.3 / 34.1
Assists 20.5 / 25.8 23.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.2 / 3.8 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 43.6 55.1 / 41.7
Free Throw % 64.0 / 80.8 84.2 / 68.2
Rebounding 45.7 / 37.5 39.0 / 49.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.2 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 11.8 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
GS
HOU
GS
ML
61% 69-44
55% 95-79
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 70-43
58% 101-73
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
TTL
51% 58-55
77% 134-40
100% 86-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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