HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
2-3 | Road
115
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
3-2 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
ROCKETS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
HOU By 1-7 points
24.5%
HOU By 8-14 points
14.0%
GS By 1-7 points
26.0%
GS By 8-14 points
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
109.74
HOUSTON
Golden State
110.53
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Houston
HOUSTON
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
HOU @ GS
117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026
GS @ HOU
115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025
HOU @ GS
104 - 100
May 4, 2025
GS @ HOU
103 - 89
May 2, 2025
HOU @ GS
115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.9% more
Golden State: 9.4
vs
Houston: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+19.4% more
Golden State: 25.5
vs
Houston: 21.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.9%
Golden State: 76.6%
vs
Houston: 70.7%
Blocks (L5)
+27.4% more
Houston: 5.8
vs
Golden State: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
109.7
115
GS Score
110.5
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 41.0
30.6 / 40.0
Assists
25.5 / 21.4
26.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.8
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 48.5
41.1 / 44.9
Free Throw %
76.6 / 70.7
81.8 / 71.7
Rebounding
41.3 / 43.5
42.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.4 / 7.5
6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 13.7
17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
HOU
GS
HOU
ML
55%
95-79
61%
69-44
58%
49-35
59%
51-35
ATS
58%
101-73
62%
70-43
58%
49-35
59%
51-35
TTL
77%
134-40
51%
58-55
100%
84-0
100%
86-0
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