Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Timberwolves GS @ MIN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

0-0  |  Road

99
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 9:30 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

0-0  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
WARRIORS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Minnesota)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

49.2%

Timberwolves Cover

50.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

GS By 1-7 points

25.1%

GS By 8-14 points

15.0%

MIN By 1-7 points

25.5%

MIN By 8-14 points

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
111.37
GOLDEN STATE
111.57
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MIN @ GS 127 - 117
Jan 26, 2026 GS @ MIN 83 - 108
Jan 25, 2026 GS @ MIN 111 - 85
Dec 12, 2025 MIN @ GS 127 - 120
May 14, 2025 GS @ MIN 110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +16.7% more
Minnesota: 47.1 vs Golden State: 40.4
Blocks (L5) +29.7% more
Golden State: 5.9 vs Minnesota: 4.1
Assists (L5) +9.2% more
Golden State: 25.1 vs Minnesota: 22.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Golden State: 36.5% vs Minnesota: 28.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 111.4 99
MIN Score 111.6 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 36.5 17.2 / 42.9
Assists 22.8 / 25.1 19.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.1 / 5.9 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 44.1 39.5 / 39.1
Free Throw % 75.5 / 78.2 88.2 / 86.7
Rebounding 47.1 / 40.4 41.0 / 51.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.5 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 11.7 16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
GS
MIN
GS
ML
54% 63-53
55% 95-79
54% 50-43
58% 49-35
ATS
58% 67-49
58% 101-73
54% 50-43
58% 49-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
77% 134-40
100% 93-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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