Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Timberwolves GS @ MIN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

1-0  |  Road

93
FINAL
Thu, May 8 • 8:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

0-1  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
WARRIORS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

58.9%

Timberwolves Cover

41.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

27.0%

GS By 8-14 points

18.9%

MIN By 1-7 points

22.7%

MIN By 8-14 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
111.07
GOLDEN STATE
108.83
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MIN @ GS 127 - 117
Jan 26, 2026 GS @ MIN 83 - 108
Jan 25, 2026 GS @ MIN 111 - 85
Dec 12, 2025 MIN @ GS 127 - 120
May 14, 2025 GS @ MIN 110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Golden State: 25.4 vs Minnesota: 21.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.7%
Golden State: 38.7% vs Minnesota: 24.9%
Steals (L5) +8.9% more
Golden State: 8.4 vs Minnesota: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 111.1 93
MIN Score 108.8 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.9 / 38.7 43.2 / 28.1
Assists 21.5 / 25.4 33.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.6 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 42.4 50.6 / 44.7
Free Throw % 79.7 / 81.0 65.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 45.1 / 43.9 39.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.4 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 13.8 13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
GS
MIN
GS
ML
54% 63-53
55% 95-79
54% 50-43
58% 49-35
ATS
58% 67-49
58% 101-73
54% 50-43
58% 49-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
77% 134-40
100% 93-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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