Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Braves EVAN @ BRAD

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

4-9  |  Road

68
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Carver Arena
View Odds Details →

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

9-4  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
PURPLE ACES --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BRADLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Bradley)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 BravesBRAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

46.0%

Braves Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BRAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRAD)

EVAN By 1-7 points

24.3%

EVAN By 8-14 points

13.7%

BRAD By 1-7 points

26.2%

BRAD By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
91
EVANSVILLE
92
BRADLEY
Simulated Score
65
EVANSVILLE
78
BRADLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 BRAD @ EVAN 94 - 90
Dec 29, 2025 EVAN @ BRAD 68 - 76
Feb 8, 2025 BRAD @ EVAN 80 - 74
Feb 7, 2024 BRAD @ EVAN 70 - 73
Jan 10, 2024 EVAN @ BRAD 50 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +51.5% more
Bradley: 9.8 vs Evansville: 6.5
Assists (L5) +19.0% more
Bradley: 14.3 vs Evansville: 12.0
Rebounding (L5) +16.7% more
Bradley: 40.1 vs Evansville: 34.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Bradley: 36.6% vs Evansville: 32.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 91.0 68
BRAD Score 92.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 32.5 32.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.3 / 12.0 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.3 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 40.3 41.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 72.1 81.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 34.3 41.0 / 39.0
Steals 9.8 / 6.5 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 13.0 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRAD
EVAN
BRAD
EVAN
ML
65% 22-12
56% 18-14
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
ATS
59% 20-14
66% 21-11
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
TTL
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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