TOWSON
TIGERSTOW
8-5 | Road
70
WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
9-3 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
TRIBE
100%
TIGERS
--
TRIBE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
TOWSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Towson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOW -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOW)
TOW By 1-7 points
12.2%
TOW By 8-14 points
23.0%
W&M By 1-7 points
3.3%
W&M By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Towson
84
TOWSON
William & Mary
67
WILLIAM & MARY
Simulated Score
Towson
68
TOWSON
William & Mary
76
WILLIAM & MARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tribe
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Tribe (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.0
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u158.0
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
TOW @ W&M
70 - 84
Feb 27, 2025
W&M @ TOW
73 - 88
Mar 9, 2024
W&M @ TOW
56 - 67
Feb 15, 2024
TOW @ W&M
61 - 52
Feb 13, 2023
TOW @ W&M
66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+18.6% more
Towson: 43.1
vs
William & Mary: 35.1
Assists (L5)
+40.9% more
William & Mary: 18.8
vs
Towson: 13.3
Blocks (L5)
+19.2% more
William & Mary: 3.6
vs
Towson: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.4%
William & Mary: 81.2%
vs
Towson: 65.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOW Score
84.0
70
W&M Score
67.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 30.4
42.0 / 28.0
Assists
18.8 / 13.3
21.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.0
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 45.3
54.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
81.2 / 65.8
67.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 43.1
32.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.8 / 7.7
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 12.1
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOW
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.8
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOW
14-17-1
(45.2%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.8
W&M
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TOW
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6%
Total +/-: -5.5
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
W&M
TOW
W&M
TOW
ML
55%
17-14
66%
21-11
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
ATS
63%
19-11-1
66%
21-11
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
TTL
61%
19-12
53%
17-15
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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