Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Horned Frogs JKST @ TCU

JACKSON STATE

TIGERSJKST

1-11  |  Road

64
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Schollmaier Arena
View Odds Details →

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

9-3  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
HORNED FROGS
0%
TIGERS --
HORNED FROGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (TCU)
TigersJKST (-3.5) 0 Horned FrogsTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

8.1%

Horned Frogs Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TCU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

JKST By 1-7 points

5.8%

JKST By 8-14 points

1.4%

TCU By 1-7 points

16.9%

TCU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
JACKSON STATE
71
TCU
Simulated Score
61
JACKSON STATE
82
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Horned Frogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs (+30.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Horned Frogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 JKST @ TCU 64 - 115
Dec 6, 2022 JKST @ TCU 51 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +88.5% more
TCU: 5.4 vs Jackson State: 2.9
Rebounding (L5) +25.4% more
TCU: 38.0 vs Jackson State: 30.3
Assists (L5) +16.9% more
TCU: 14.5 vs Jackson State: 12.4
Steals (L5) +9.3% more
TCU: 6.5 vs Jackson State: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JKST Score 57.0 64
TCU Score 71.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 32.0 48.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.5 / 12.4 37.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.4 / 2.9 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 38.9 65.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 74.1 100.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 30.3 36.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.9 12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 15.3 8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JKST
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JKST
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.2
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
JKST
TCU
JKST
ML
74% 26-9
77% 24-7
63% 19-11
73% 19-7
ATS
74% 26-9
77% 24-7
63% 19-11
73% 19-7
TTL
66% 23-12
58% 18-13
100% 30-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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