INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-26 | Road
119
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
19-10 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
PACERS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
IND By 1-7 points
24.3%
IND By 8-14 points
13.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
104
INDIANA
Houston
105
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u222.5
Loss
Proj Total: 209.0
D
Sim
u222.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 2, 2026
HOU @ IND
118 - 114
Dec 29, 2025
IND @ HOU
119 - 126
Mar 4, 2025
HOU @ IND
102 - 115
Nov 20, 2024
IND @ HOU
113 - 130
Feb 6, 2024
HOU @ IND
129 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.4% more
Houston: 6.8
vs
Indiana: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+49.8% more
Houston: 9.2
vs
Indiana: 6.2
Rebounding (L5)
+17.9% more
Houston: 48.3
vs
Indiana: 40.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
Houston: 39.8%
vs
Indiana: 32.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
104.0
119
HOU Score
105.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 32.5
37.0 / 53.0
Assists
26.3 / 26.1
21.0 / 30.0
Blocks
6.8 / 4.2
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 45.8
59.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
74.3 / 76.3
75.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
48.3 / 40.9
50.0 / 29.0
Steals
9.2 / 6.2
4.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 17.3
19.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
IND
HOU
IND
ML
61%
69-44
48%
47-50
59%
51-35
54%
45-38
ATS
62%
70-43
59%
57-40
59%
51-35
54%
45-38
TTL
51%
58-55
54%
52-45
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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