Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Nets GS @ BKN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

16-16  |  Road

120
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Barclays Center
View Odds Details →

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

10-19  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
NETS
100%
WARRIORS --
NETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 NetsBKN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

75.8%

Nets Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

25.3%

BKN By 1-7 points

15.3%

BKN By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
118
GOLDEN STATE
111
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
114
GOLDEN STATE
118
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Nets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o226.5 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 BKN @ GS 106 - 109
Dec 29, 2025 GS @ BKN 120 - 107
Mar 6, 2025 GS @ BKN 121 - 119
Nov 25, 2024 BKN @ GS 128 - 120
Feb 5, 2024 GS @ BKN 109 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.7% more
Golden State: 6.2 vs Brooklyn: 3.4
Steals (L5) +10.7% more
Golden State: 9.0 vs Brooklyn: 8.1
Rebounding (L5) +8.1% more
Golden State: 45.8 vs Brooklyn: 42.1
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Brooklyn: 48.4% vs Golden State: 45.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 118.0 120
BKN Score 111.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 33.5 43.0 / 30.0
Assists 28.5 / 29.1 22.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.4 / 6.2 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 45.8 45.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 85.0 / 84.3 74.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 45.8 34.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.1 / 9.0 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 17.4 / 16.8 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
BKN Advantage
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
GS
BKN
GS
ML
53% 50-45
55% 95-79
59% 48-34
58% 49-35
ATS
52% 48-44-3
58% 101-73
59% 48-34
58% 49-35
TTL
57% 54-41
77% 134-40
100% 82-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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