Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Razorbacks JMU @ ARK

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

7-6  |  Road

74
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Bud Walton Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

9-3  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
📊
RAZORBACKS
0%
DUKES --
RAZORBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
193.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Arkansas)
DukesJMU (-3.5) 0 RazorbacksARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

0.6%

Razorbacks Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

JMU By 1-7 points

0.5%

JMU By 8-14 points

0.1%

ARK By 1-7 points

3.3%

ARK By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
84
JAMES MADISON
109
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
72
JAMES MADISON
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Razorbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks (-23.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Razorbacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o159.5 Win
Proj Total: 193.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 JMU @ ARK 74 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +62.6% more
Arkansas: 17.8 vs James Madison: 10.9
Steals (L5) +17.1% more
Arkansas: 7.3 vs James Madison: 6.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.2%
Arkansas: 43.0% vs James Madison: 28.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Arkansas: 50.1% vs James Madison: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 84.0 74
ARK Score 109.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.0 / 28.8 54.0 / 38.0
Assists 17.8 / 10.9 24.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.0 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 44.6 55.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 71.0 65.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 39.1 37.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.2 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.2 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
JMU
ARK
JMU
ML
68% 25-12
64% 21-12
81% 25-6
66% 21-11
ATS
70% 26-11
67% 22-11
81% 25-6
66% 21-11
TTL
57% 21-16
67% 22-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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