Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mastodons @ Panthers PFW @ MILW

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

8-6  |  Road

55
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:00 PM ET
UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

PANTHERSMILW

6-6  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
MASTODONS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Milwaukee)
MastodonsPFW (-3.5) 0 PanthersMILW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mastodons Cover

11.5%

Panthers Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MILW -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MILW)

PFW By 1-7 points

8.0%

PFW By 8-14 points

2.2%

MILW By 1-7 points

20.1%

MILW By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
69
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
73
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
76
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 MILW @ PFW 82 - 100
Dec 29, 2025 PFW @ MILW 55 - 77
Feb 2, 2025 PFW @ MILW 81 - 79
Jan 8, 2025 MILW @ PFW 73 - 78
Feb 25, 2024 PFW @ MILW 88 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.7% more
Milwaukee: 16.0 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 12.0
Rebounding (L5) +32.5% more
Milwaukee: 42.1 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 31.8
Free Throw % (L5) +7.2%
Milwaukee: 77.4% vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 70.2%
Steals (L5) +33.4% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 7.8 vs Milwaukee: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PFW Score 57.0 55
MILW Score 69.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 35.3 36.0 / 22.0
Assists 16.0 / 12.0 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.9 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 46.4 44.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 70.2 80.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 31.8 53.0 / 20.0
Steals 5.2 / 7.8 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 8.3 16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
MILW
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW Advantage
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
MILW
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
MILW
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MILW
PFW
MILW
PFW
ML
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
74% 23-8
ATS
47% 15-17
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
74% 23-8
TTL
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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