CORNELL
BIG REDCOR
6-5 | Road
97
MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
11-1 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
BIG RED
100%
SPARTANS
0%
BIG RED
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
COR By 1-7 points
9.3%
COR By 8-14 points
2.7%
MSU By 1-7 points
21.6%
MSU By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cornell
80
CORNELL
Michigan State
91
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Cornell
65
CORNELL
Michigan State
82
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+24.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o159.5
Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
COR @ MSU
97 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+126.4% more
Michigan State: 7.0
vs
Cornell: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+29.2% more
Michigan State: 43.8
vs
Cornell: 33.9
Turnovers (L5)
+15.1% more
Michigan State: 12.4
vs
Cornell: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Michigan State: 76.4%
vs
Cornell: 72.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COR Score
80.0
97
MSU Score
91.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 43.4
46.0 / 34.0
Assists
19.3 / 21.2
30.0 / 19.0
Blocks
7.0 / 3.1
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 48.7
55.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 72.9
67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
43.8 / 33.9
45.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.5 / 5.6
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 10.8
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COR
15-13-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.6
MSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COR
11-15-0
(42.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.6
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
COR
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +6.5
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
COR
MSU
COR
ML
71%
25-10
44%
12-15
61%
20-13
63%
17-10
ATS
71%
25-10
59%
16-11
61%
20-13
63%
17-10
TTL
49%
17-18
78%
21-6
100%
33-0
100%
27-0
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