Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bruins @ Sycamores BEL @ INST

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

12-1  |  Road

80
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Hulman Center
View Odds Details →

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

7-6  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
SYCAMORES
0%
BRUINS --
SYCAMORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Indiana State)
BruinsBEL (-3.5) 0 SycamoresINST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

30.9%

Sycamores Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around INST -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

BEL By 1-7 points

18.6%

BEL By 8-14 points

8.0%

INST By 1-7 points

27.2%

INST By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
BELMONT
79
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
76
BELMONT
81
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sycamores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sycamores (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Sycamores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 INST @ BEL 70 - 87
Dec 29, 2025 BEL @ INST 80 - 81
Feb 22, 2025 INST @ BEL 75 - 77
Jan 11, 2025 BEL @ INST 84 - 79
Jan 31, 2024 INST @ BEL 78 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.2% more
Indiana State: 3.8 vs Belmont: 2.7
Assists (L5) +15.7% more
Belmont: 19.2 vs Indiana State: 16.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.7%
Belmont: 46.6% vs Indiana State: 34.9%
Steals (L5) +10.2% more
Belmont: 5.7 vs Indiana State: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BEL Score 74.0 80
INST Score 79.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 46.6 40.0 / 41.0
Assists 16.2 / 19.2 24.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.7 2.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 52.0 46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 67.6 50.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 40.6 36.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.7 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 13.6 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
BEL
INST
BEL
ML
66% 21-11
47% 15-17
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
ATS
62% 20-12
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
TTL
53% 17-15
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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