Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Blue Hens MOST @ DEL

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

6-5  |  Road

61
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 2:00 PM ET
Bob Carpenter Center
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

BLUE HENSDEL

4-7  |  Home

43
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BLUE HENS
0%
BEARS --
BLUE HENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Delaware)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 Blue HensDEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

9.7%

Blue Hens Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

MOST By 1-7 points

6.8%

MOST By 8-14 points

1.7%

DEL By 1-7 points

18.6%

DEL By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
55
MISSOURI STATE
68
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI STATE
72
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Hens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Hens Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Hens (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Blue Hens (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 DEL @ MOST 76 - 67
Dec 29, 2025 MOST @ DEL 61 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.2% more
Delaware: 13.3 vs Missouri State: 10.6
Assists (L5) +22.6% more
Delaware: 14.6 vs Missouri State: 11.9
Blocks (L5) +22.0% more
Delaware: 4.9 vs Missouri State: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5) +13.1%
Delaware: 77.6% vs Missouri State: 64.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 55.0 61
DEL Score 68.0 43
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 26.8 30.0 / 32.0
Assists 14.6 / 11.9 8.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 43.0 30.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 64.5 69.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 36.0 30.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.8 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 10.6 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
DEL
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
DEL
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
DEL
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
MOST
DEL
MOST
ML
45% 14-17
65% 22-12
52% 16-15
62% 21-13
ATS
61% 19-12
68% 23-11
52% 16-15
62% 21-13
TTL
65% 20-11
44% 15-19
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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